Dramatic Drops in Student Performance 

Student performance in 4th grade reading in Wisconsin was the lowest that had been recorded since at least 1992.  4th grade math was at it’s lowest level since 2003.  Despite spending more than $18,000 per student, not to mention huge amounts of federal funding entering the system during the COVID-19 pandemic, student outcomes have only gotten worse. This should be a five-alarm fire for the education establishment.  

NAEP Results Clearly Show how DPI has ‘Cooked the Books’ with academic outcomes.  

As we have discussed on several occasions, in 2024 DPI lowered the standards and cut scores for proficiency on the state’s Forward Exam for the most recent academic year.  Proficiency was previously tied to the NAEP in reading and math—meaning that proficiency on the Forward Exam was comparable to NAEP proficiency.  But now, that tie is broken, and Forward Exam proficiency has been dramatically inflated.  The figure below shows the gap when it comes to 4th grade reading.  

Proficiency on the state exam was 20% higher than on the NAEP. Large gaps also exist when it comes to math (12% higher at the fourth grade level).  This means that DPI is deeming 20% of students proficient in reading that really aren’t–effectively lying to parents and Wisconsinites concerned about education. 

This illustrates, once again, the absurdity of DPI’s new definition of “meeting expectations.”  Fortunately, legislation has been proposed by Senator Jagler and Representative Witke that bring back a tie to the NAEP for the Forward Exam, as well as make other changes to create a more accurate accountability system for parents and taxpayers. This gap highlights the importance of this bill.  

Weak Foundation 

As has been pointed out by AEI Scholar Nat Malkus, declines in recent iterations of the NAEP are less across the board than they are driven by declines among the lowest performers. A similar trend has been seen in recent years in this state. The chart below shows the performance of the 25th and 75th percentiles in 4th grade reading going back to 2015.   While there has been a slight decline of 3 points at the 75th percentile, the 25th percentile has taken a far bigger dive of 12 points.  

Achievement Gaps Persist 

On the 2022 edition of the NAEP, Wisconsin had the largest racial achievement gaps of any state in both math and reading at the fourth and eighth grade levels.  The 2024 data show that this continues to be the case. In fourth grade reading, there is a 45-point gap between white and black students in overall score.  The only NAEP area with a wider margin is Washington DC. The figure below shows the change in the gap from 2022 to 2024 in fourth grade reading. 

Achievement gaps exist not only along racial lines, but also along lines of income as well.  Historically, Wisconsin has been slightly better on the gap between lower- and higher-income students (as defined by eligibility for the National Free Lunch Program). In 2024, the gap widened in some areas, with higher income students in the state actually increasing their performance. The results for eighth grade math are shown below.  

Milwaukee Continues to Struggle

Much like the state as a whole, Milwaukee continues to see declining performance.  The table below shows 4th grade reading for Milwaukee since 2017. The outcome for Milwaukee was the lowest recorded in this time frame.  The average score of 179 is well below the national average even for other large cities (208). A similar story holds in math, where the district’s score of 205 was both the lowest since 2017 and lower than the large city average (231). 

Conclusion 

Despite spending nearly $18,000 per student, education in Wisconsin continues to stagnate, or even get worse. It is vital that we have a clear picture of where students stand, and that families have options to choose alternative options if local public schools aren’t meeting their needs.  More than 800,000 students across the state need an education that prepares them for the world, not political posturing.