This post originally appeared at https://www.bootsandsabers.com/2025/05/05/josh-shoemann-runs-for-governor/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=josh-shoemann-runs-for-governor

Story from Wisconsin Right Now. You can click through to watch his announcement video.

Schoemann, 43, who is running as a Republican, is holding an event on Sunday, May 4, 2025, to officially announce his campaign against Democrat Gov. Tony Evers.

“I’m Josh Schoemann, and I’m running for governor,” he confirms in the video, which sketches out his bio and strikes a theme of commonality and unity through being neighbors. The tone stands in stark contrast to the very partisan rhetoric and stances lately of Evers, and Schoemann also emphasizes his deep Wisconsin roots.

Let me start by saying that, barring some unforeseen circumstance, I don’t think Shoemann has a chance.

I’ve watched Shoemann’s public career since he started because I lived in his county. He started out as a hired County Administrator. He was effective, but in that role his responsibilities were to the board that hired him. He pushed to change Washington County into a County Executive form of government where the County Executive is an elected branch of county government. The County changed the form of government and Shoemann ran for, and won, that job. He’s been the Washington County manager and executive for the last eleven years.

Shoemann has a great biography for Wisconsin. He’s a combat veteran, lives on a farm, is a practicing Lutheran, a family man, and is involved in multiple local organizations. His governing style has been traditionally conservative. He navigated the urban/rural divide of an overly large county board, sought compromises, and incrementally helped lead the county in a conservative direction. The county has managed to keep taxes comparatively low, sought efficiencies, privatized the county old folks home, encouraged private investment, and, with a few exceptions, ran a good shop.

Shoemann is the kind of Conservative that I support. Shoemann’s challenge is that there aren’t enough people like me to elect him to be governor.

Shoemann’s headwinds are substantial. First, this election will be the midterm election after a new president. This is usually an election in which the opposition party of the president does well. Trump has defied all kinds of political norms and that may be true this time too, but odds are that any Republican will struggle to win the governorship next year.

Second, Shoemann lacks statewide name recognition. This is probably why he’s starting so early, but it’s a significant uphill climb.

Third, while not certain, it is looking more likely that Governor Evers will run for a third term. If he does, then the two challenges above are amplified by running against an entrenched, well-funded incumbent.

Fourth, the last few statewide elections have taught us something. Wisconsin is a blue-leaning state. There simply aren’t enough conservatives to win statewide anymore. Since the Walker era, too many conservatives have left the state and been replaced by growth in liberal bastion of Dane County and filtering into the WOW counties. The only thing that has defeated Democrats at the state level is a coalition of Populist/Trump and Conservative voters. For a Republican to win, he or she must turn out the traditional conservative Republican base in SE and somewhat NE Wisconsin, but also turn out the more rural outstate and disaffected minority and youth votes. It’s the Trump coalition. Yes, there may be another path to victory, but this is the only formula that has worked since 2016.

Given all that, Shoemann is not that guy. As Washington County Executive, he didn’t take the big swings that would attract the Trump voters. He didn’t cancel the sales tax. He didn’t drastically reduce the property tax. He didn’t take a DOGE-like hatchet to county government. He governed like a traditional conservative. He also governed a 94% white county that, while not without challenges, certainly doesn’t face the challenges that Milwaukee County did when Scott Walker ran it.

Josh Shoemann is the kind of governor that Wisconsin SHOULD elect, but I am almost certain that they won’t.