This post originally appeared at https://www.bootsandsabers.com/2025/03/31/poll-shots-supreme-court-race-in-dead-heat/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=poll-shots-supreme-court-race-in-dead-heat
BREAKING! Trafalgar just released a poll showing Schimel and Crawford in a statistical tie!
Schimel 49.2% – Crawford 50.8%. 1083 Likely Voters, Margin of Error 2.9% pic.twitter.com/EQGEdOvoKy
— Wisconsin Right Now (@wisconsin_now) March 31, 2025
I think everybody, including me, thought that Crawford was significantly ahead as recently as ten days ago. There is generally a structural 5%-10% structural advantage for liberals in Wisconsin in non-presidential elections. Crawford seemed to be cruising. Then, I think two things happened.
First, and most obviously, Republicans successfully nationalized the race with a Trump endorsement and Musk stepping in to support Schimel. This countered the money advantage of the liberals and began to activate the Trump base – which is not reliable in off-cycle elections.
Second, and more subtlety, the race for DPI began to narrow. The DPI has long been a fiefdom of the liberal teachers’ unions. It almost didn’t matter who ran against the union candidate, because they could turn out the votes in an April election to swamp anyone. But this year is different. The incumbent Jill Underly has been an abject failure. So much so that the normally Blue Wall of support is fractured. Governor Evers is tepid. Much of the Black electorate in Milwaukee is frustrated with her apathy toward educating black kids in their city. Even the liberal Madison State Journal endorsed her challenger, Brittany Kinser.
Kinser is a Democrat, but she has run as an open-minded education advocate. She reached out to Republicans, Conservatives, School Choice supporters, and others who passionately support education, but have been ignored by DPI for decades. She touched a nerve. Kinser’s campaign has brought out people to vote who are motivated by education, but not as motivated by a judicial race.
All of this has moved the momentum toward Schimel and Kinser. It’s not a pure Red coalition. It is a coalition of Conservatives, Populists, MAGA, parents, and people terrified of their property taxes skyrocketing when a liberal court strikes down Act 10. But while the momentum has clearly shifted, that doesn’t mean that the liberals won’t still win. Schimel and Kinser have a significant uphill climb to win, but I would rather be them right now than Underly or Crawford.
Get out and vote tomorrow if you haven’t already. This race will be razor tight. Every vote matters.